The Cynic: September 27

BUSINESS
This Week’s Business News

Seoul says it can’t hand over $350 billion in cash—because that’s how you speedrun a financial crisis.

South Korea’s national security adviser said the country can’t pay the $350B “upfront” investment President Trump suggested as part of a tariff-cut deal, and is instead pushing loans, guarantees, and equity—i.e., finance, not a suitcase.

Talks on formalizing the deal are stuck, with Seoul warning that a cash outlay anywhere near that size would destabilize an economy whose FX reserves total about $410B. Timing target: APEC next month, if someone invents math both sides like.

Meanwhile, Trump publicly touted “$350 billion upfront,” which plays well at rallies but less well with Korea’s accountants.

New tariff alert: heavy-duty trucks get a 25% wall—starting October 1.

The administration’s latest trade salvo adds a 25% levy on imported heavy trucks next week, part of a broader package that also slapped steep duties on furniture and up to 100% on certain branded drugs (with carve-outs for firms building U.S. plants).

The policy pitch is industrial security; the market read is “check your cost assumptions,” especially for logistics and big-ticket goods. There’s no partner carve-out on trucks, so the levy bites regardless of this summer’s partial tariff deals.

Winners and losers? Domestic truck makers cheer, import-heavy fleets reach for spreadsheets, and consumers eventually wonder why literally everything costs more to ship.

EA is circling a $50 billion go-private—because even video games want DLC called “leverage.”

Electronic Arts is in advanced talks to go private around a ~$50B valuation, with a consortium including Silver Lake, Saudi Arabia’s PIF, and Affinity Partners; a deal could land as soon as next week and would be the largest LBO ever if it closes.

Strategic logic: predictable cash flows from annual sports titles + shooters = PE catnip. Shares jumped ~15% on the chatter, reminding everyone that “multiple expansion” is sometimes just “exit the stock market.”

Also, fewer quarterly calls about microtransactions. Somewhere, a CFO is already petting a spreadsheet like a Bond villain.

INVESTING
This Week’s Investment

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REAL ESTATE
This Week’s Real Estate News

Existing home sales… mostly didn’t.

August closings dipped 0.2% to a 4.00M annualized pace, up 1.8% year-over-year, as high prices kept the market in molasses; the median hit $422,600, the 26th straight annual gain. Yes, it’s still expensive to live anywhere near anything.

Inventory ticked to 1.53M (4.6 months), with sales up in the Midwest and West but down in the Northeast and South—translation: affordability still decides the map.

Rates have eased from the peak, but not enough to unfreeze sellers sitting on sub-4% mortgages. It’s like musical chairs where the chairs have 3% APR engraved on them.

Plot twist: office investors are… back?

U.S. office transaction volume jumped 42% in the first half of 2025 to about $26B, with bigger bids and more of them—apparently “office curious” became “office serious.”

Context matters: trophy assets and prime markets led the dance, while broader leasing metrics are only grudgingly improving—demand is up, but not for sad 1980s cubes.

Still, it’s a vibe shift: falling rates and discounted pricing have private capital kicking tires again, which is how recoveries start (quietly, in data rooms).

Affordability is the new HOA: everyone’s in it, nobody likes it.

Even with recent rate relief, 2025 remains a rough year for first-time buyers; analysts see the U.S. housing market stuck in a slow lane through 2026, with 30-year mortgages likely hanging north of 6% longer than your patience.

Some optimistic scenarios say “normal” affordability could return around 2030 if rates drift to ~5.5% and incomes cooperate; skeptics note both clauses read like wishful thinking.

Until then, plan on more renting, selective refis, and a lot of Zillow doom-scrolling. The American Dream is still alive—he just wants you to Venmo him first.

FUN
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ADVICE
This Week’s Business Advice

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