The Cynic: September 15

BUSINESS
This Week’s Business News

A TikTok “deal” is close—but only if it comes with side orders of tariffs and trade concessions.

U.S. and Chinese negotiators in Madrid say progress on forcing a ByteDance divestment is real, but Beijing is tying any TikTok fix to broader concessions on tariffs and other U.S. measures. Treasury’s Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer called China’s opening bid “very aggressive,” which is diplomat for “you want what for a dance app?”

The not-quite-deadline looms, again. A fresh extension of the Sept. 17 divest-or-ban date is seen as the most likely outcome—because nothing says “national security” like renewing a 90-day timer for the fifth time.

Also, the mood music isn’t subtle. China just waved an antitrust probe at Nvidia while Washington leans on allies over Beijing’s Russian-oil buys; everyone’s negotiating with one hand and brandishing a policy stick with the other.

Democrats to Trump: make a trade deal that curbs China’s “overproduction,” not just a vibe.

Members of the House China committee urged the administration to bake binding caps on Chinese industrial overcapacity into any deal—explicitly calling out steel, solar, and other sectors that flood global markets.

Translation: fix the model, not the symptoms. The letter to Treasury’s Bessent, USTR Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick argues Washington should coordinate with allies on enforcement and balance any tariff strategy with a broader coalition.

Beijing’s reply was… unsurprised. China dismissed the “overcapacity” charge as protectionism in a trench coat, while U.S. officials kept talks rolling in Spain. Consensus in D.C. may be rare, but skepticism of China’s playbook is the new bipartisan sport.

Russia is doing wheat-for-wheels: barter is back, because sanctions hate invoices.

To dodge banking restrictions and secondary-sanctions risk, Russian firms are swapping grain for Chinese cars, flax for appliances, and metals for machines—a 1990s throwback with 2025 geopolitics.

Moscow even published a how-to. A 14-page economy-ministry “Guide to Foreign Barter Transactions” lays out the playbook; eight deals surfaced via customs and trade sources, with officials admitting the method exists even if totals are opaque.

When SWIFT won’t, swap will. With Chinese banks wary of secondary sanctions, barter, payment agents, and even stablecoins are the new plumbing—clunky, but cheaper than getting blacklisted.

REAL ESTATE
This Week’s Real Estate News

Opendoor’s Keith Rabois says the company needs just 200 people—unfortunately it currently has ~1,400.

In a CNBC interview, the board chair called Opendoor “bloated” and said up to 85% of staff could go, which is one way to say “we’re streamlining,” and another way to trigger 1,200 LinkedIn updates.

The stock popped on the tough love. Investors cheered the idea of a radically leaner iBuyer, even as new CEO Kaz Nejatian digs into the numbers and Rabois knocks culture, remote work, and… pretty much everything.

Memo to algorithms: Zestimates are cute; profits are better. If AI can price the homes, maybe it can also write the severance letters.

AI talent is juicing real estate in a handful of cities—office leases up, rents up, everybody else’s patience down.

CBRE data shows AI-skilled workers in the U.S. and Canada jumped 50%+ to ~517,000 in a year, clustering in SF, NYC, Seattle, Toronto, and DC—exactly the places already allergic to affordability.

New York added ~20,000 AI workers; San Francisco leased a quarter of its recent office square footage to AI firms. Unlike other tech, the AI crowd is mostly in-office, which is wonderful news for landlords and less wonderful for renters who enjoy money.

Winners and whiners. Landlords, brokers, and coffee shops win; studio-hunters lose; your group chat debates moving to Cleveland—again.

Family offices aren’t waiting for a rescue—they’re writing the term sheets in commercial real estate.

Multi-family offices are pooling capital to take bigger bites of CRE, often via platforms like Realm, targeting income and distress while institutions tread water.
Why now? Cheaper debt (soon), pricier equity (always), and lots of forced sellers. With refinancing cliffs and price discovery still awkward, patient private money is stepping into mezz, preferred equity, and value-add where banks and pensions hesitate.

The new house rules: Move fast, underwrite ugly, and bring a longer clock—the sort of patience only families with generational capital and low committee drama can muster.

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